iDoubt It – 6 Reasons Not To Give Up Your Day Job To Join The Cult of Apple

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I have it on good authority that the secret to making trend predictions is to make them long-term. That way if they work out you can always point back to your original, and if it doesn’t then everyone has forgotten anyway.

But I’m feeling pretty strong on this one, so I’m going to put my butt on the line and give you 6 good reasons why I don’t think Apple’s iPhone is going to live up to expectations.

When it was announced, Steve Jobs predicted 10 million customers will pay U$499 or US$599 in the first year it is released. That’s about 10% of the number of iPods that have rolled out of the Apple factories since October 2001. Here’s why I think he’s wrong:

1. Steve Jobs probably doesn’t use a Motorola RAZR

When the RAZR hit stores in 2005 it was a phenomenon. But as the New York Times found, it didn’t take long before people found themselves one of 6 people in a meeting with the same phone. It went fairly quickly from being a coveted object to a commodity-design. There’ll be some kudos for the first of your friends who casually leaves his new iPhone on the table, but that’s soon going to disappear if every kid on the train has one. Phones are conspicuous and a buying motivation for many, whether we admit it or not, is to inspire envy.

2. The next bigger thing is just around the corner

Perhaps they’re feeling unbeatable, or perhaps shareholders needed a little massage. Apple has given a nice long lead-up to their actual release date and already its obvious that some other interesting companies, not traditionally in the phone market, are going to give them a run for their money. A couple of days ago Google execs confirmed that they’re working on the Google Phone and its likely to be the first of many radical tie-ups and new products we see in the next 1 or 2 years. We’re about to have a lot of options

3. Just because we use an iPod doesn’t mean we’ll want an iPhone

As the Hartford Courant so delicately puts it, we are now all Brand Sluts. We’ll buy iPods and Apple computers while it suits us to do so, but we’re informed and we’re unfaithful. The minute something better comes along we’re happy to drop a brand like a hot rock.

“We are, almost without apology, acquisitive people. We live in a culture that embraces everything new and entices us to throw away something perfectly good and functional for the new model on the showroom floor. We want that next hot cellphone, that faster car, that more tricked-out music device, that flashier kitchen gadget, that more expensive pair of jeans. Consumer envy has made us perfect, and perfectly conspicuous, little shoppers.”

4. Our trust has been shaken, not stirred

Lousy battery life, scratched up screens and rapid product obsolescence have all been the hallmarks of the iPod. How willing are we going to be to jump at a phone that might be replaced with a newer, smarter model in 6 months?

5. A phone is not just a phone anymore

In one sense Apple knows this. Theirs is going to play music and video and offer internet and email access. But their “one gadget to rule them all” idea doesn’t gel with some of the subtler ways we use our phones. Ted Talks has for a long time featured some of the world’s most interesting people sharing their ideas and the closing day for last week’s Ted Conference included Jan Chipchase, a cultural researcher for Nokia. His job is to go around the world studying people’s relationships with their phones. He’s discovered that that relationship is incredibly complex.

If you thought (like me) that you had a connection with your phone because when you pick it up to check for messages you get one, then you might be interested to know that it runs a lot deeper than that. An interesting example he brought up in his talk is that where our cellphone is, on our desk, in our pocket, in a bag etc, actually changes where we feel the centre of the room is. Another one to watch out for in your next meeting is how phones on tables are being used to define personal space. His Ted Talk, as well as a bunch of interesting phone culture research is available in PDF from his website.

6. You and I are not the same and I want to make that clear

The trend away from using brands to express ourselves and towards a demand for difference and the use of other markers for expression is nothing new. iPods are a nice piece of technology, but they don’t say much about us. It’s obvious from the amount of phone customisation we see around us that phones, on the other hand, are something many feel make a conspicuous statement. No one wants that statement to be “I’m the same as everyone else”.

So how?

I’m not saying Apple isn’t going to shift a lot of units of its iPhone. It looks like a cool piece of technology and I’m sure there’s going to be a stampede by early adopters to get their hands on one. But 10 million in a year? My prediction is not.

Of course if they do, forget where you read this.

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Filed under Electronics & Gadgets, Trends

Tags: iPhone, jan chipchase, phone culture, product customisation, product hacks